OKLAHOMA UPDATE: August 16, 2006

By soonerfan Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

"Curiouser and curiouser" is how I'd like to describe the state of affairs in our beloved Sooner State today, with the Runoff Election just a week away and the summer storms taking us from sun to win to rain to sun again with relative frequency these days, it seems. Where should I begin? Where I always do, of course... At the top!

O.U. FOOTBALL...

We are but a few (well 10) more days away from the start of all things good and wonderful here in beautiful Oklahoma and here is my commentary: "Say it ain't so, Rhett, say it ain't so!" For the record, what sort of name IS Rhett? Frankly, my dear, we do give a darn and you shoulda known better. What Aggie's bright idea was this anyway? Let's hope these dismissals end this here and now... any more and I'm going to start to think the season will be in some trouble. As it is, I'm still cautiously optimistic. I don't know where I read it but one sports writer had a fine point: about 85% of all division 1 schools would turn down Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode for a campaign contribution at the chance of signing a kid like Thompson.

(For that matter, if you could get all the horse tranquilizers out of her system, I'm betting about 67% of all D-1 programs would sign a nutjob like Denise Bode too.)

But I digress...

GOVERNOR'S UPDATE

I read a fascinating article in the Oklahoma Gazette that Democrat Brad Henry took more than $100,000 in campaign "gifts" from a businessman (including some lovely trips to Las Vegas) but didn't feel anything was inappropriate or out of the ordinary.

You know, nothing was out of the ordinary in the Clinton White House when Bill and Hillary were both sleeping in separate bedrooms but that didn't make it right, normal or appropriate, either.

Okay, enough just insulting the guy, here's my thought: more news this week that lottery sales continue to slump. Who would have thought that gambling might be a problem in the Bible Belt? I'm now guessing, though, that perhaps it's just been some bad advertising. Here's my slogan for you: "The Brad Henry/Mary Fallin Plan: Hey, Life's A Gamble, Why Not Learn With Us?"

Okay, so right around November 7th, hopefully voters will realize that schools still don't have the money they need, but lots of people don't now either... not to mention their livers... or their spouses... or their homes... or their cars. Thank you Brad Henry & Mary Fallin!

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR UPDATE

All is pretty quiet on the LG's front... None of the vitriol just yet that we witnessed in the primary. This bodes well for House Speaker Todd Hiett who also picked up the endorsement of JC Watts not that long ago. "[Hiett] shares the same traditional values as the majority of Oklahomans, and he advanced the most significant pro-life reforms in Oklahoma in three decades," Watts said. I haven't heard from the Pruitt campaign so unfortunately I haven't anything to share.

5TH DISTRICT UPDATE

We finally went from an atrocious near-gaggle (seven in a gaggle, right?) of candidates to a more manageable two. From my perspective, we got the best two. Gone is Captain Calvey, King of Corporate Welfare and In-State Tuition to Illegal Immigrants. Gone is Fred Morgan, blow-dried blow-hard of negative campaigning and irrelevance whose lifetime goal of banning violent video games is unconstitutional. Gone is Doctor Johnny Roy, the wacky Iraqi who never actually filed with the Federal Election Commission but he's a urologist and his campaign logo had a sperm on it... what more could you ask for?

And last but not least, gone is Denise Bode, that fiery oil temptress whose flair for drama is exceeded only by her flair for fundraising. Only she's not gone yet, is she? Just today she sent out yet another attack press release against Mick Cornett. Yes, you read me right. Campaign consultant Ron Black, after working for the Cornett campaign, is back hacking it up for the Bode's again. Why? Who knows. Why not. What else does he have to do? Or her, for that matter. Husband John is a happy, well-respected DC-lobbyist, and she just can't get there. I've got $5 that says July 25th was the biggest sigh of relief he's ever breathed.

As for the Runoff? It's like the primary all over again for Mary Fallin. People love her until they have to think about voting for her. She's at 70%. She's at 60%. She's at 55%. My God, it's like a Tim Robbins movie... When will it end? Oh, the humanity!!

Okay, in all seriousness, the two runoff candidates had a nice debate Monday night and have another Wednesday night. From what I hear, the Wednesday debate (which was taped earlier tuesday) was pretty much a repeat love-fest except when both candidates asked a question of the other.

Mick to Mary (this is paraphrased in my native tongue): "You've doubled your salary and spend like a drunken sailor... What gives?"

Mary: "No. No I don't." (Silence.)

Mary to Mick (again, paraphrased): "You talk about career politicians versus regular people. What's your definition of a career politician?"

Mick: "Ummm... You?"

So, there you have it. I hope as always I've both entertained and possibly educated a little. Mostly entertained (in a spirit of good conservativeness of course).

IN CLOSING...PREDICTIONS

What would an "Oklahoma Update" be without some predictions to set things off a little? Here you all are...

Istook.....54% (November)
Henry......46%
_____________
Hiett......61% (Tuesday)
Pruitt.....39%
______________
Cornett.....51% (Tuesday)
Fallin......49%

Predictions... by Red Dirt

Istook vs. Henry - a very optimistic spread on your part, but if we're looking for realistic predictions I'd go with the reverse. Henry continues to poll well among Okie Republicans, and looking for a Gazette story to damage him is wishful thinking. The Gazette is considered a rag that inflates biased stories filled with shoddy reporting.

Hiett vs. Pruitt - I'm a Hiett fan, but I'm not predicting quite the blow out you have. I'd say Hiett 56, Pruitt 44. Pruitt's vaporware claims to the contrary, Hiett has a broad base of support among staunch conservatives, rural voters and pretty much all over the state. But keep in mind that Pruitt has been able to play on his (losing) congressional campaign in Tulsa, as well as using the now-disgraced conservative Tulsa radio host Michael DelGiorno as a mouthpiece for his campaign for months. Tulsa has been a stronghold for Pruitt, and the only reason he made it into the runoff in the first place. Also, Pruitt has used his status as Bob Funk's lackey to arm twist funds from donoars and get free advertising through the RedHawks. But he hasn't been able to get back on the air until just a few days ago, whereas Hiett has been running a positive name ID campaign for weeks. Pruitt's relaunch ad is filled with the faces of fellow state Senators most voters have never heard of and it drifts into negative territory again. Not a good sign for him, and not a good sign for voters hoping the GOP will take the Senate this year -- too many of the GOP Senators have not been focusing on the goal of being a majority and have continued to maintain a small-minded minority mentality.

Cornett vs. Fallin - All indications are that Fallin will keep her Marymentum and beat Cornett soundly. Read the Oklahoman's story today about Cornett walking through the empty streets of Shawnee as part of his campaign swing. I'd say at least 55 for Fallin to Cornett pulling in 45, and that would be a best-case scenario for Cornett.

"Whenever a man has cast a longing eye on offices, a rottenness begins in his conduct." ~Thomas Jefferson

Reply To This — User Info — #1

Dear Mr. Moby, by Neil Stevens

Thank you for making it easy to check your posting history, in today's present absence of an easy way to do that. The way you've made only two comments in the last four weeks, both times in soonerfan's OKLAHOMA UPDATE diaries, made it really easy to see where you stand. You clearly registered just to talk up the Democratic (tax-hiking?) Governor.

So please, get lost.

Neil Stevens
Lowly Red State User and Invader Hater
--
"In this day and age, you're not going to get a fair shake in the media" -- Lance Armstrong

Reply To This — User Info — #2

The whole "Mr. Moby" thing... by Red Dirt

Dude, seriously. That's so way off base!

I post on Oklahoma politics because that's where my interests lie! I'm no Henry fan, I'm just interested in having a clear-eyed view of things and anyone who seriously thinks the liberal Gazette is going to swing elections is absolutely clueless.

Also, it's just a fact -- as much as we Okie GOP activists hate to admit it -- that Henry continues to poll well among GOP voters.

Relaying these facts is not shilling for Henry, it's being honest about the situation on the ground.

I registered to talk about Oklahoma politics. Period. I am a conservative Republican, and your accusations are baseless.

If you don't like THAT, why don't you get lost?

"Whenever a man has cast a longing eye on offices, a rottenness begins in his conduct." ~Thomas Jefferson

Reply To This — User Info — #3

Maybe I'm wrong by Neil Stevens

But when people come in here talking gloom and doom for Republicans, and praise tax hikers as 'governing,' I get suspicious.

I hope you understand why I've come to have a hair trigger on that.
--
"In this day and age, you're not going to get a fair shake in the media" -- Lance Armstrong

Reply To This — User Info — #4

Realism vs. Fantasy Land by Red Dirt

I guess there's a difference between doom and gloom and being realistic. It's great to be optimistic, but let's not go around with rose-colored glasses on all the the time and spit out happy talk nonsense about Istook winning by nine percentage points.

That does not reflect the reality of where we are the moment.

As for the Gazette, people outside the state need to understand that this is seen as a weekly "alternative" liberal rag with poor sourcing on its stories and a tendency to pick a premise and then make the story fit that angle.

It doesn't cause me any heart burn to see the governor twisting in the wind on this story, but everyone needs to understand that it's not going to really damage him unless further information is forthcoming and other media outlets pick up on it. The Gazette has a pattern of putting out inflammatory cover stories with very little to back them up -- such as a hatchet piece on Hiett months ago and a hatchet piece on religious conservatives back earlier in the year. Few local outlets ever follow their trail.

And my previous post from several weeks ago was right on target. There is a difference between a minority mindset and governing. The Republicans in the state House under Hiett were only in the first two years of a new majority facing a Democrat-controlled state Senate and a Democrat governor. And yet the House GOP drove the agenda for two years: workers' comp reform, two years of tax cuts, pro life legislation, getting rid of the death tax, putting money into fixing the state's bad road system.

Anyone who followed the story knows that the Senate Democrats were intent on a government shutdown this year. Only Hiett trying to work out a compromise with the governor averted that -- and we got record TAX CUTS as part of the bargain, as well as the elimination of the death tax.

Do you really think liberals will be able to take those cuts back? Seriously? Those are permanent cuts and could likely be accelerated next year. Oklahoma is one of only five states with "surplus" revenue this year that cut taxes by more than one percent.

"Whenever a man has cast a longing eye on offices, a rottenness begins in his conduct." ~Thomas Jefferson

Reply To This — User Info — #5

Istook is not going to win by Adam C

unless something changes. Republicans MUST win over some Democrats to win statewide elections. Gov. Henry is almost exactly what most Oklahoma Democrats want to see. Thus it will be very hard for Istook to win the race. I'm undecided on the LG race. I haven't been that impressed with Fallin, but it would help pro-lifers to have another woman in the House who is willing to put this in writing:

"I am hopeful that one day soon the courts will re-examine and reverse Roe v. Wade." - Fallin's website, issues section.

Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

Reply To This — User Info — #6

Mary Fallin should stop talking about family! Ron Black too! by okgoper

Mary Fallin's campaign slogan is "Faith, Family & Freedom". Is it me or should Mary Fallin be the last person in the world talking about family? This is the same Mary Fallin who broke up not one, but TWO, marriages (hers and a state trooper's) because of adultery. Family? When are we going to start practicing what we preach?

Until we do, we're no better than Bill Clinton on family issues. Until we do, we're hypocrites and have no reason to be complaining that Al Gore or Barack Obama are talking about gas-guzzling cars and then driving off in SUV's.

YES, it would help GOPers to have another woman in the house, but I don't think we really want a female version of Bill Clinton on our team, do we? Because that's exactly what Mary Fallin is... and while Mike Cornett appears to be too classy to go negative on her, the Democrats aren't going to be so nice about it.

P.S. When did Ron "Cry Baby" Black come back on the scene? I thought his job got shipped off to Mexico. Who in there right mind ever would hire him to work on a campaign? Please tell me not Cornett!!

Reply To This — User Info — #7

Swinging the State Senate to GOP? by Red Dirt

Can anyone comment on the situation with getting the state Senate into GOP hands?

I've heard some disturbing things over the past few weeks since Nancy Riley's defection -- that the GOP Senators are not as focused on the goal of a majority as they should be.

Can anyone comment on the situation?

And no, Neil Stevens, this is not shilling for the Dems! This is asking for (SERIOUS) input on whether the GOP is about to blow a historic opportunity to control both legislative chambers in Oklahoma...

"Whenever a man has cast a longing eye on offices, a rottenness begins in his conduct." ~Thomas Jefferson

Reply To This — User Info — #8

Precious freakin' little... by okgoper

What is GOP Chairman Tom Daxon doing to win a Republican majority in the State Senate? Precious freakin' little.

He's more concerned with chastising news sites and writing memos than actually building a party. He makes Howard Dean look like a competant DNC Chairman. If Haley Barbour was the epitome of what a party chairman SHOULD be, Tom Daxon is the antithesis.

And what about Mary Fallin? Mary Fallin, the President of the Senate and retiring Lieutenant Governor, didn't even know there was an unhappy FEMALE Senator among the Republican Party ranks. So she didn't help either. Between Daxon and Fallin, not to mention the Republican leadership in the state Senate, Riley's exodus probably put control out of reach.

HOWEVER... The "Istook Factor" is something that perhaps shouldn't be overlooked. Republicans, conservative Democrats and Independents have the potential to unite so strongly behind Ernest Istook this November that he carries a Senate majority with him.

Reply To This — User Info — #9

Redstate