Redstate

Having rallied hear of a pronouncement from Dick Morris, saying that their spirits are up. Briefly buoyed by this news, they begin to realize that Dick Morris, although a self- proclaimed political genius, has a history of bizarre behavior and occasionally muddled thinking. Upon this realization, the voters begin to flog themselves, planning for overseas vacations the week of election day in face of an almost certain Democratic landslide. However, Delta Airlines and British Airway, having cannily predicted the mood of GOP voters, raise their overseas fares by 500%, leaving the Republican faithful with little choice but to vote their conscience. Meanwhile, the Democrats, having heard that the Republicans were all leaving the country, fail to turn up at the polls on election day. One of the victims of these stunning turn of events, Nancy Pelosi, having been turned out of her Congressional seat is seen months later tending Dick Morris' backyard vineyard.

Conservatives have all the reasons necessary to turn out in huge numbers.

Sen Biden said no more originalist judges will ver make it out of the Senate Judicial Committee once he is chairman. Saddle up.

You want liberal activist judges, stay home.

by creating buzz and attention. They've got to generate enough business to last until th '08 election cycle. Expect much waffling and hedging as they try to generate interest and readership from both parties.

Si vis Pacem, Para Bellum

Um, yes he can. When the polls were predicting a Democratic victory, he made a perfectly reasonable prediction based on that data. Now that the polls have shifted, he has made another very reasonable assessment based on the new data. I don't know why some folks find that frustrating.

It will go from being a huge Democrat blowout to too close to call before the pulls open. This is in the same playbook they've been using the last few cycles. They talk up a huge Democrat blowout for a few months, hoping to demoralize the Republican base, then when it doesn't materialize, start to backtrack just in time for the election, in the hope they'll have some credibility left when its all over. Then they can start it all over again in 2008.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson

Which, come to think of it, is "both sides."

"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill

Dick Morris has found the cure for the most nagging problem of political commentators, wrongness. By predicting all possible results in the upcoming election, he has empowered himself to claim victory no matter how the mere candidates do.

Sincerely,
Bob Miller
Indianapolis, IN

Here's a crazy scenario to consider. Not saying it's going to happen, but could be likely.

Michael Barone is now predicting a probable 2 seat loss in the House for the GOP. (I mostly agree, but it could be offset by GOP wins in GA and IN?)

If that happens, you will see some HUGE backroom dealing going on on Capitol Hill starting Nov. 8.

Miss. Congressman Gene Taylor a moderate Democrat has stated that he would "abstain" instead of voting for Pelosi.

Could the GOP vote en masse for Taylor and cut a deal for "joint sharing" of the House?

This is a very common practice in State Legislatures across the Nation that have 50/50 splits.

I know I'm going out on a limb here, but Gene Taylor as House Speaker is now looking to be a distinct possibility?

What do you all think?

Eric Dondero
www.mainstreamlibertarian.com

There's good news and bad news.

"A composite of four generic congressional ballot polls (Reuters, Times/CBS, ABC and Newsweek) taken from October 18 to October 21 shows the Democrats holding a seven-point lead (46 to 39 percent). The smallest Democrat lead in these polls was 2 percent (Reuters); the largest was 14 (Newsweek). And the seven point lead should give you a sense of déjà vu - it's the exact nationwide margin by which the Republicans won Congress in 1994, in the so-called "Republican Revolution."

This was written in October 1996. See http://www.digitas.harvard.edu/~salient/issues/961104/extremism.html Democrats and Republicans were roughly split, with the Dems. picking up only 10 seats. Martin Frost had predicted 30.

Good news:
As Charlie Cook has noted, the generic ballot is typically skewed 5 points in favor of the Democrats.

Bad news:

The current generic ballot average has Republicans 16, not 7 points out.

Unless the Republicans can narrow that average gap to the single digits in the next two weeks, the Democrats will likely pick up 20 or more seats.

I'm betting it will shrink considerably, maybe to 10 points on average, but not 5. We'll have to wait and see.

"So now, a mere five days later, what has changed? What major changes in the political landscape have taken place?"

There's less than two-weeks until the mid-term, the electorate has started to take notice, and surely by now, a majority of the voters have actually learned their chosen candidate's name. Unfortunately, Generic doesn't seem to be listed anywhere in the Voter's Guide.

Or, there's less than two-weeks until the mid-term and the window-of-opportunity has closed for push-polling to be effective. The polsters must now produce numbers that will be seen by the electorate to be "in-line" with the actual election results. This is necessary to maintain some degree of credibility with the voters for the next cycle of agenda-driven push-polls.

With Obama's "coming-out-party" just around the corner, we won't have very long to wait for that next cycle.

"Is it possible, as has been suggested on this website for many weeks, if not months, that the polls have been rigged from the start? Is it possible that the pollsters have had their own agenda throughout this campaign season? Is it possible that the polls have been more about hope and wishful thinking, than substance?"

See above.

I might add: What purpose is served by a political poll that is commissioned, conducted or paid-for, and then disseminated by the agenda-driven partisan press one-to-two-years out from any given election?

Before answering, think about this: How many polling cycles, and at what frequency, does that ligitimate purpose remain credible?

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"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan

dixie68

I really liked it better when Dick Morris was predicting a landslide victory for the democrats. Now that he has changed his mind, it is making me afraid, because I cannot remember his being right in any of his final predictions.

Pundits want to be right. In the world of punditry, "being right" means "being close to right in your last call."

Morris, like other pundits, could keep his invitations to the "best" cocktail parties and social dinners all year long by predicting Democratic success. Now, as the actual voting approaches, reading the true momentum can yield a "right" call on the results, giving him the best of both worlds: a spring and summer of acceptability to sensitive liberals, and a final prediction which was "right," so he can claim prescience for at least the next two years.

It's simple, really.

This is EASY. Here's the big 6 for 2006:

-taxes
-judges
-economic prosperity
-national security
-Iraq
-border security/immigration policy

Also, while spending control hasn't exactly been a forte of the Republican leadership lately, no one thinks that the Democrats will do any better and most think they will do worse.